{"id":11205,"date":"2025-08-01T12:00:37","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T18:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/?p=11205"},"modified":"2025-08-01T12:10:17","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T18:10:17","slug":"mexico-descarta-recesion-en-2025-y-mantiene-expectativas-economicas-pese-a-la-presion-de-aranceles-de-ee-uu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/eng\/mexico-descarta-recesion-en-2025-y-mantiene-expectativas-economicas-pese-a-la-presion-de-aranceles-de-ee-uu\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e9xico descarta recesi\u00f3n en 2025 y mantiene expectativas econ\u00f3micas pese a la presi\u00f3n de aranceles de EE.UU."},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"11205\" class=\"elementor elementor-11205\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b736fee e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"b736fee\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7c92ff3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"7c92ff3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2048\" height=\"1643\" src=\"https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Marcelo-Ebrard-2048x1643-1.jpg\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-11216\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Marcelo-Ebrard-2048x1643-1.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Marcelo-Ebrard-2048x1643-1-768x616.jpg 768w, https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Marcelo-Ebrard-2048x1643-1-1536x1232.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Marcelo-Ebrard-2048x1643-1-15x12.jpg 15w, https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Marcelo-Ebrard-2048x1643-1-300x241.jpg 300w, https:\/\/finanzasconfiables.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Marcelo-Ebrard-2048x1643-1-600x481.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cf36f24 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"cf36f24\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">La Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda de M\u00e9xico reiter\u00f3 el 30 de julio de 2025 que mantiene sin cambios sus previsiones clave para el a\u00f1o, pese a un entorno internacional complicado, especialmente por los aranceles impuestos por Estados Unidos, su principal socio comercial.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">La dependencia ratific\u00f3 que espera un crecimiento del PIB de entre <\/span><b>1.5\u202f% y 2.3\u202f% para 2025<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, descartando una contracci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica para todo el a\u00f1o, as\u00ed como una inflaci\u00f3n acumulada del <\/span><b>3.5\u202f% al cierre de 2025<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. De hecho, analistas del sector privado han elevado ligeramente sus estimaciones, pronosticando un crecimiento del <\/span><b>0.20\u202f%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, frente al <\/span><b>0.18\u202f%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> anterior.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Al 30 de junio, la deuda p\u00fablica representaba el <\/span><b>49.5\u202f% del PIB<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, un retroceso respecto al <\/span><b>51.3\u202f%<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> registrado a fines de 2024. El d\u00e9ficit fiscal previsto para 2025 se mantiene en un rango entre el <\/span><b>3.9\u202f% y el 4\u202f% del PIB<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, conforme a los criterios presupuestarios presentados previamente.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Seg\u00fan Rodrigo Mariscal, titular de Planeaci\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica, los aranceles estadounidenses no han impactado significativamente las exportaciones mexicanas, gracias a la depreciaci\u00f3n del peso, que ha contrarrestado la subida tarifaria relativa con EE. UU.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Por otro lado, Hacienda descart\u00f3 abrir una nueva emisi\u00f3n de deuda pre-capitalizada para apoyar la liquidez de Pemex, aunque indic\u00f3 que trabajan en otros mecanismos de respaldo financiero para la empresa petrolera<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finalmente, el organismo actualiz\u00f3 sus pron\u00f3sticos para el crudo: el precio medio previsto subi\u00f3 a <\/span><b>62.4\u202fUSD por barril<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, frente a <\/span><b>57.8\u202fUSD<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> estimados en el presupuesto; en tanto, la producci\u00f3n esperada fue recortada a <\/span><b>1.762 millones de barriles diarios<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, desde 1.891 millones presupuestados.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1e33f5d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1e33f5d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FUENTES:<\/span><\/p><ol><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reuters. (2025, 30 de julio). <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">M\u00e9xico mantiene expectativas macroecon\u00f3micas 2025, ve dif\u00edcil contracci\u00f3n<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Reuters.<\/span><\/li><li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Imagen creada con Inteligencia Artificial.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p><b>Reuters. (2025, 14 de julio).<\/b> <i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Foto del ministro de Econom\u00eda de M\u00e9xico, Marcelo Ebrard, hablando en conferencia de prensa en Ciudad de M\u00e9xico<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> [Fotograf\u00eda]. Reuters. (Imagen usada como archivo en art\u00edculo de prensa)<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Secretar\u00eda de Hacienda de M\u00e9xico reiter\u00f3 el 30 de julio de 2025 que mantiene sin cambios sus previsiones clave [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":330,"featured_media":11217,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fiscal"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>M\u00e9xico descarta recesi\u00f3n en 2025 y mantiene expectativas econ\u00f3micas pese a la presi\u00f3n de aranceles de EE.UU. - 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